Championship

Derby County vs Wrexham prediction

Played Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Final score

1-1

Model called an away win — wrong

Model Analysis

Dixon-Coles ML

Derby County

35.5%

Draw

28.3%

Wrexham

36.2%

Projected Expected Goals1.48 vs 1.28

Projected Scoreline1 - 1

Over / Under 2.5 GoalsOver 52% · Under 48%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)Yes 56% · No 44%

Rest & PreparationEqual Rest (14d each)

Recent Match Load1 vs 1 matches (last 3 wks)

Top Projected Goalscorers

Carlton Morris(FWD)

xG 0.1629%

Sammie Szmodics(MID)

xG 0.1923%

Bobby Clark(MID)

xG 0.1820%

Kieffer Moore(FWD)

xG 0.1818%

Lars Jorgen Salvesen(FWD)

xG 0.1316%

Probabilities from our Dixon-Coles model, calculated before kickoff. Goalscorer chances assume the player features. See how the model has done on the receipts page.

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