Championship

Burnley vs Derby County prediction

Played Sat 19 Sept, 15:00

Final score

1-1

Model called a home win — wrong

Model Analysis

Dixon-Coles ML

Burnley

68.7%

Draw

20.6%

Derby County

10.7%

Projected Expected Goals1.91 vs 0.60

Projected Scoreline1 - 0

Over / Under 2.5 GoalsOver 46% · Under 54%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)Yes 38% · No 62%

Rest & PreparationEqual Rest (7d each)

Recent Match Load5 vs 4 matches (last 3 wks)

Probabilities from our Dixon-Coles model, calculated before kickoff. See how the model has done on the receipts page.

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